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Four Signs Behind The Recent RMB Exchange Rate Move

In recent days, the sharp fluctuations of RMB exchange rate have attracted wide attention of the market.Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has been continuously rising, some experts predict that this year the exchange rate is expected to break 7 .In response, guan tao, a senior researcher at BBS (CF40), a Chinese financial institution, said that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has advantages and disadvantages. "The recent renminbi correction is the result of a stronger dollar, and the dollar is not necessarily stronger in the future." Guan tao analysis, short - term market bearish sentiment focused catharsis, the renminbi will move back to economic fundamentals.  Behind the recent exchange rate fluctuations, there are new signals that need to be taken seriously. Specifically, the following four signals need to be noted :

(1) the earliest source of volatility in the currency market is macroeconomic uncertainty

(2) the current volatility in the foreign exchange market is entirely endogenous

(3) in the early stage, the "deleveraging" policy, which has been firm and undiminished, has begun to be adjusted

(4) surplus grain of the central bank's intervention rate declined.

The above four signals are not only about the existence of the preconditions for exchange rate prediction, but more importantly, on this eventful occasion, exchange rate fluctuations are not only a change in market prices, but also a popular feeling.